The task to phase out fossil fuels is now at hand. Most studies and publications to date (year 2024) focus on why fossil fuels should be phased out.
The study by Simon Michaux presents the physical requirements in terms of required non-fossil fuel industrial capacity, to completely phase out fossil fuels, and maintain the existing industrial ecosystem.
No matter what minerals will be needed, large quantities of them are needed as the renewable power sources like wind and solar, require extensive mineral resources to manufacture the infrastructure for fossil-free energy.
The World needs a new plan to build a genuinely sustainable non-fossil fuel industrial ecosystem
And there is a challenge. Preliminary calculations, presented in the research report, includes number of vehicles in different vehicle class in year 2018 and what does it take to transfer that mass to Electric Vehicles (EV’s). Based on this number, it is clear that there are not enough minerals in the currently reported global reserves to build 1,4 billion EV’s in the global industrial ecosystem as it is today. Mining production, existing mineral reserves, resources and recycling will not be enough to manufacture the first generation of renewable technology.
This calculation is showing the scale of the task, not predicting the future.
There are wide variety of estimates on the number of vehicles we will need in the future, as well as the rate of change for the vehicle fleet composition. Battery recycling has the potential to ease the transition during the next 10-15 years, but is not a solution on its own.
There is a need to diversify sustainable material/metal/mineral sourcing, where manufacture could be done with parallel technology systems that require different material chemistries. In doing so, current reported mineral reserves may be sufficient for long term supply.
