The estimates show the magnitude of the challenge

How were the estimates made?

The number of vehicles in the global transport fleet was collected by class (passenger cars, buses, commercial vans, HCV Class 8 heavy trucks, delivery trucks, etc.). The rail transport network, the international maritime shipping fleet, and the aviation transport fleet was mapped, in terms of activity and vehicle class. For each type of vehicle class, the distance travelled was estimated.

Non-fossil fuel technology units that are commercially available on the market were used as examples for how to substitute fossil fuel supported technology. For each vehicle class, a representative commercially available example was selected, for Electrical Vehicle and Hydrogen fuel cell systems. Biofuels and ammonia ICE was also considered.

The requirements to substitute the ICE rail network and the maritime fleet with EV and hydrogen fuel cell systems were presented. It was assumed that the performance specifications of each selected example were representative for that vehicle class.

The quantity of electrical energy required to charge the batteries of a complete EV system was estimated. The quantity of electrical energy to manufacture the required hydrogen for a complete H2 Cell system was also estimated.

An examination and comparison between EV and H2 Cell systems was conducted. Other fossil fuel industrial tasks like electrical energy generation, building heating with gas and steel manufacture with coal were mapped and requirements for non-fossil fuel substitution were estimated.

The estimated sum total of extra annual capacity of non-fossil fuel power generation to phase out fossil fuels completely, and maintain the existing industrial ecosystem, at a global scale is 48 939.8 TWh.

This builds upon an existing 9 528.7 TWh of non-fossil fuel electrical energy generation annual capacity. If a non-fossil fuel energy mix was used (based on an IEA prediction for 2050, IRENA 2022) was assumed, then this translates into an extra 796 709 new non-fossil fuel power plants will be needing to be constructed and commissioned.

A discussion on the needed size of the stationary power storage buffer to manage intermittent energy supply from wind and solar was conducted.

Four calculations of the size of the power buffer were done (6 hours, 48 hours, 28 days and 12 weeks). Pumped hydro, hydrogen, biofuels, battery banks and ammonia were all examined as options in this paper.